TOKYO—North Korea's development of nuclear and ballistic missile technology
against the uncertain political background of a young leader attempting to
consolidate power marks a potential new level of danger for regional security,
according to a report by the research arm of Japan's Ministry of Defense.
The East Asian Strategic Review, by the National Institute for Defense Studies, draws the situation surrounding security on the divided Korean peninsula as unpredictable as ever.
"Concerns over the nuclear situation are becoming more acute," the report says, citing the possibility that the North may have succeeded in nuclear miniaturization. "If this leads to North Korea gaining the ability to mount its nuclear warheads on ballistic missiles, it would pose a major threat to countries in the region, including Japan," the report states.
The review covers developments in 2011, and so doesn't address North Korea's recent announcement of a plan to launch a rocket between April 12 and 16, which Pyongyang says is aimed at putting a satellite into space for peaceful purposes.
The launch announcement by North Korea, which already is under heavy international sanctions for its previous missile and nuclear development, has been met with widespread condemnation, particularly from South Korea, Japan and the U.S. They say the planned launch is in violation of sanctions imposed by the United Nations.
Tokyo is particularly sensitive to North Korean missiles, which flew over northern Japanese territory in 1998 and in 2009. This time, North Korea says it will launch toward the south, which could see the rocket fly over islands in the Japanese prefecture of Okinawa. Japan says it may shoot down the rocket if it threatens to hit its territory.
Hiroyasu Akutsu, a professor at the ministry's institute and an expert on North Korea, said there is little chance Pyongyang will reconsider its plan despite the international outcry.
He cited similar circumstances in 2009 when North Korea asserted its sovereign right to carry out a space launch.
"North Korea is confident that China will ultimately support it even if it carries out the launch," he said, adding that the country's new regime under Kim Jong Eun is trying to establish itself. "Because of this, for domestic reasons they are also in a situation where they can't call off the launch," he told reporters Thursday at a briefing on the report's release.
The third-generation leader of North Korea, who remains largely unknown, took the helm of the nation after the death in December of his father, Kim Jong Il. The rocket launch is said to commemorate the 100th anniversary of the birth of his grandfather Kim Il Sung, North Korea's founder.
"It is entirely unclear whether a young leader short of experience and charisma can, over the longer term, cement the foundations of the regime by securing the support of the military, maintaining internal stability, reviving the economy and achieving a favorable shift in external relations," the report states.
Other topics in the report include last year's earthquake and tsunami disaster in Japan, the territorial dispute in the South China Sea involving China and Southeast Asian countries and the possibility of defense-budget cuts in the U.S. harming its military capabilities.
The East Asian Strategic Review, by the National Institute for Defense Studies, draws the situation surrounding security on the divided Korean peninsula as unpredictable as ever.
"Concerns over the nuclear situation are becoming more acute," the report says, citing the possibility that the North may have succeeded in nuclear miniaturization. "If this leads to North Korea gaining the ability to mount its nuclear warheads on ballistic missiles, it would pose a major threat to countries in the region, including Japan," the report states.
The review covers developments in 2011, and so doesn't address North Korea's recent announcement of a plan to launch a rocket between April 12 and 16, which Pyongyang says is aimed at putting a satellite into space for peaceful purposes.
The launch announcement by North Korea, which already is under heavy international sanctions for its previous missile and nuclear development, has been met with widespread condemnation, particularly from South Korea, Japan and the U.S. They say the planned launch is in violation of sanctions imposed by the United Nations.
Tokyo is particularly sensitive to North Korean missiles, which flew over northern Japanese territory in 1998 and in 2009. This time, North Korea says it will launch toward the south, which could see the rocket fly over islands in the Japanese prefecture of Okinawa. Japan says it may shoot down the rocket if it threatens to hit its territory.
Hiroyasu Akutsu, a professor at the ministry's institute and an expert on North Korea, said there is little chance Pyongyang will reconsider its plan despite the international outcry.
He cited similar circumstances in 2009 when North Korea asserted its sovereign right to carry out a space launch.
"North Korea is confident that China will ultimately support it even if it carries out the launch," he said, adding that the country's new regime under Kim Jong Eun is trying to establish itself. "Because of this, for domestic reasons they are also in a situation where they can't call off the launch," he told reporters Thursday at a briefing on the report's release.
The third-generation leader of North Korea, who remains largely unknown, took the helm of the nation after the death in December of his father, Kim Jong Il. The rocket launch is said to commemorate the 100th anniversary of the birth of his grandfather Kim Il Sung, North Korea's founder.
"It is entirely unclear whether a young leader short of experience and charisma can, over the longer term, cement the foundations of the regime by securing the support of the military, maintaining internal stability, reviving the economy and achieving a favorable shift in external relations," the report states.
Other topics in the report include last year's earthquake and tsunami disaster in Japan, the territorial dispute in the South China Sea involving China and Southeast Asian countries and the possibility of defense-budget cuts in the U.S. harming its military capabilities.
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