Myanmar votes on Sunday in its third election in
half a century, a crucial test of its nascent reform credentials that could
propel opposition leader Aung San Suu Kyi into parliament and convince the West
to end sanctions. The United States and European Union have hinted that economic
sanctions - imposed years ago in response
to human rights abuses - may be lifted if the election is free and fair,
unleashing a wave of investment in the impoverished but resource-rich country
bordering rising powers India and China.
Suu Kyi, the Nobel Peace Prize winner held for 15 years under house arrest
until 2010, complained last week of "irregularities", though none significant
enough to derail her party's bid for 44 of 45 by-election seats.
"We're happy to see that everything is going peacefully and we hope that the
whole day can be run in a peaceful way," said Ivo Belet, a member of the
European parliament who is in Myanmar to observe the election.
"We'll make an evaluation later of course on the basis of all the polling
sessions that we will be seeing. We will be working all day from this morning
until tonight and also try to follow the counting of the votes."
To be regarded as credible, the vote needs the blessing of Suu Kyi, who was
freed from house arrest in November 2010, just days after a widely criticised
general election that paved the way for the end of 49 years of direct army rule
and the creation of a civilian parliament stacked with former generals.
The parliament has surprised the world by pursuing the most dramatic
political reforms since the military took power in a 1962 coup in what was then
known as Burma.
The government has freed hundreds of political prisoners, begun peace talks
with ethnic rebels, relaxed its strict media censorship, allowed trade unions,
and showed signs of pulling back from the powerful economic and political orbit
of its giant neighbor China. It was rewarded last November when Hillary Clinton
made the first visit to the country by a US secretary of state since 1955.
Business executives, mostly from Asia, have swarmed into the commercial
capital, Yangon, in recent weeks to hunt for investment opportunities in the
country of 60 million people, one of the last frontier markets in Asia.
Voting stations opened at 6am (2330 GMT), some under the watch of small
numbers of observers from the European Union and the Association of South East
Asian Nations (ASEAN).
The last election, in November 2010, was widely seen as rigged to favour the
military-backed Union Solidarity and Development Party (USDP), the biggest in
parliament. Suu Kyi's National League for Democracy (NLD) boycotted the
vote.
But as Myanmar changes, so too, is Suu Kyi.
At 66, many see her now as more politically astute, more realistic. She has
described President Thein Sein -- a general in the former military junta -- as
"honest" and "sincere" and accepted his appeal for the NLD to take part.
Her top priorities, she says, are introducing the rule of law, ending
long-simmering ethnic insurgencies and amending the 2008 constitution ensuring
the military's strong influence over the country. She is expected to easily win
a seat in parliament, running in the constituency of Kawhmu, south of
Yangon.
While her party may end up with only a small number of seats, many expect her
to exert enormous influence. Some Burmese wonder if conservatives would dare
oppose her ideas in parliament given her popularity, especially ahead of a
general election in 2015. Many want to be seen closely aligned with her.
But the election has not gone smoothly. She has suffered from ill health and
accused rivals of vandalising election posters, padding electoral registers and
"many, many cases of intimidation." Some of these infractions, however, have
been quite minor and are typical of elections across Southeast Asia.
Skeptics in the democracy movement say she is working too closely with a
government stacked with the same former generals who persecuted dissidents,
fearing she is being exploited to convince the West to end sanctions. Others
have almost impossibly high hopes for her to accelerate reforms once she enters
parliament.
It was not clear when the election results would be announced, and whether
they will be seen as free and fair. The government has invited a small number of
election observers, including five from ASEAN, but they have been given hardly
any time to prepare inside Myanmar.
Some US restrictions such as visa bans and asset freezes could be lifted
quickly if the election goes smoothly, diplomats say, while the EU may end its
ban on investment in timber and the mining of gemstones and metals.